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Basically, anything in sports where stats are counted in increments of one and scoring is relatively rare. It works by converting mean averages into a range of probabilities and can be used to predict, like the most likely score of a soccer match. Find all the latest sports betting stats at SportsBetting.ag's stats center. This is the place of all NBA, NCAAB, NHL, NFL, NCAAF, MLB betting statistics.
Sports betting analytics
Sports betting model is a method, that helps you to project your own (winning percentages) odds before you bet, by using sports betting analytics. It is a very important part of the betting system that helps you finding a team’s probabilities more accurately than a bookmaker/betting market. It helps you to find the value that most other bettors wouldn’t find.
For most people, this is a very difficult task. It takes a lot of time, research, knowledge, testing, and even sleepless nights. But once you establish a successful betting model, it can give you the edge and show you opportunities that the general betting public would never consider.
I can not imagine betting without a betting model, where I get projected numbers that can be compared with the bookmakers’ numbers (my projected odds/lines vs bookmakers lines).
Why betting model is so important?
Sports betting has changed over the years. The sports betting market is sharper, bookmakers are sharper and the numbers are more and more important. And the real difference between sports betting, which is a financial market and pure sports are numbers. Without numbers, there is no sports betting. This is where betting models step in…
What is the key to winning at sports betting?
The key to winning in sports betting is betting on the value (+EV bets). So if the bookmaker’s odds are 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) on a particular event, that means that they give both teams 50% of the chance.
The goal of every sports betting model is to calculate (independently) probabilities of these outcomes and then comparing with bookmakers’ odds.
If in this case, my betting model estimates true probabilities for this event, that one team will have 60% of chance instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). On 100 bets, the betting record would be 60 wins and 40 losses, profit: +14.6 units.
Sports Betting Algorithm
The heart of every betting model is the algorithm. The combination of the right statistical methods, formulas, functions, and statistics (usually advanced statistics) is the key.
All other things, like visual aspects of the model, the colors, copy/pasting, or scrapping the data from the internet are just the details that can be improved anytime and can make our betting life easier. But without a good algorithm, everything else just falls into the water.
How to build a sports betting model?
Creating a betting system that is based on algorithms and probabilistic methods is usually a hard task for most bettors, who just love the sport. But with the right steps and the right focus, it can be done even with the simplest tools like excel or Google Sheets.
- Research the leagues or sports that you want to analyze. Remember that you are not choosing a sport to watch, but the market to invest.
- Specify what problem you want to solve
- Choose the tool or programming language based on your knowledge, where you will build a model. The simplest tool for an average bettor, where we still make amazing things are excel and google spreadsheets. Or you go with advanced like python.
- Accumulate significant data and analyze it
- Choose a statistical method
- Create a model in your tool or program (betting software)
- Test the betting model and track results
Excluding emotions and stick to betting algorithms and well-defined betting systems
Many sports bettors make two big mistakes that lead to a big disappointment sooner or later:
- They emotionally decide which sports they will bet
- They make betting decisions based on intuition and gut feelings. Not based on numbers or +EV.
The intuition can not be measured and can not be tracked. Feelings change every day and this affects our decisions. This is why well-defined sports betting models are crucial because help us to make rational decisions and track performance.
List of My Private Sports Betting Models
Sports Betting Statistics
My whole work is devoted to helping an average sports bettor to win at sports betting by using the numbers and building models in betting spreadsheets.
It all started with the MLB betting model, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even the average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple betting models in google sheets or excel.
The fact is that in the long run, only value bets will lead to a profit. And the value is simply the difference between bookmakers’ odds and true (projected) odds. Best betting models can answer these questions.
Table of contest
- MLB Betting Model
- Basketball Betting Model
- NBA Betting Model
- NHL Betting Model
- CSGO esports Betting Model
- NFL Betting Model
- CBB Betting Model
- Soccer Betting Model
MLB BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- The model uses free available advanced stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Betting Model performance = More than
+120 units last 4 seasons - Edge against the market with best MLB plays: Beating the line 70% of times with positive closing line value.
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
BASKETBALL BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your spreads and totals for any basketball league you want
- The model uses free available stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- I have created and tested on almost every single league with profitable overall results on more than 2000+ bets. The best leagues: SPA A, CHN, GER, ABA,…
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
NBA BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
- The model uses free available advanced stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
NHL BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- The model uses free available advanced stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Upgraded betting model with all lineups, that you can update every day
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
CSGO ESPORTS BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- The model uses free available stats and is based on lineups
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Upgraded betting model with all lineups, that you can update every day
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
NFL BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
- The model uses free available advanced stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
CBB BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
- The model uses free available advanced stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
SOCCER BETTING MODEL
Key Features:
- Ability to project your odds and expected goals
- The model uses free available soccer stats
- Access to my private betting model, that you can use right away
- I have created it for Bundesliga 2 as an example, but you can create for any league after watching videos in the course
- Contact me for more info: [email protected]
What you’ve put together here with the NHL, the NBA, is awesome! I enjoy inputting lineups… I’m finding not to be lazy about them because its makes a difference in the lines. I’m especially excited what you have for College BB… I would think that would be a difficult task. But what you’re doing lately , I have all the faith. Way to Go MB…. I’m in the right place with you!
BOTBetting Course MemberYour course isblowing my mind and i don’t regret to be part of it! You opened my eyes about the world of sports betting and now i look different about everything! I think that I’m on a good way from a sheep to a smart sheep and then I will end as a wolf! I want to thank you for all your work and effort you putted in those videos and those formulas! I‘m stunned and i didn’t even started with the videos about NHL yet!
MartinBetting Course MemberSports Betting Stats Software
My Private Betting spreadsheets to download
Every sports betting model, that I have created for myself or to help sports handicappers is available as a betting spreadsheet download for A Journey members (learn more about betting spreadsheets and membership in this video)
Why my models are different?
Sports Handicapping Stats
- Simple – All my models were created in Google Spreadsheet with simple functions and simple formulas. The main idea from the start is to help an average bettor to become an independent sports handicapper without following or paying other people’s picks.
- Free tools and free stats – All models are created in free google spreadsheets (you only need a free google account) and we always “operate” with free stats taken from the internet
- My private models – There are handicappers that share projections, there are probably also some that will show you how to build a model, but nobody is willing to share their private betting models, that they use for themselves. Are my private models are available to download
- Profitable results – Everything I do I share publicly and I don’t just share some formulas, but I also show how I use them in real-time. I focus on profit and beating the closing lines.
- Upgrading all the time – From time to time we need to upgrade models because bookmakers are too smart and they hire the best experts. I constantly upgrade models and share them with our members.
- No emotions – the betting model helps us make rational decisions, that are based on numbers and facts. It is one of the most important things when it comes to sports betting.
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